Wednesday, May 29, 2013

30 May 2013 Pinar Karsiyaka - Galatasaray Medical Park

Pinar Karsiyaka Galatasaray Medical Park
The 3rd game of the series for home side Pinar Karsiyaka is absolutely crucial. It's a "now or never" game for them. Since the series is 2-0 on behalf of Galatasaray Medical Park, Pinar Karsiyaka has no solution but to win this game in order to extend it to 4th game. The first game ended with the absolute dominance of Galatasaray Medical Park clinching the victory by 70-54 final score. In the second game, Pinar Karsiyaka performed a lot better 2 days ago;however, their performance wasn't just good enough to level the series. Along with the full stake pick of that game, here I'm writing a promised longer analysis prior to tomorrow's 3rd match up.

As I wrote before, a devastating Galatasaray Medical Park victory in the first game was totally unexpected for me. It was more or less predictable that Galatasaray given their home court advantage was likely to began the series with a triumph;but, I never thought I would find such a disappointing defeat conceeded by Pinar Karsiyaka team. Izmir side reached to TBL semi finals for the first time after more than 10 years, so they were supposed to perform significantly better than they actually did. Right before the beginning of play offs, Pinar Karsiyaka team suffered serious injury problems. William Thomas which was the key player during Pinar Karsiyaka's Eurochallenge run, was diagnosed by pneumonia. Such a sickness caused a huge drop in his personal performance and correspondingly Pinar Karsiyaka's paint dominance in terms of both rebounding and scoring. Other power forward Umit Sonkol stepped up against Fenerbahce Ulker and averaged 10+ points in each of those games. While William Thomas' still suffers the side effects of such serious illness, Umit Sonkol couldn't sustain his positive performance either. These are just one side of Why Pinar Karsiyaka was heavily dominated by Galatasaray Medical Park in the first game. The other reason was the poor shooting of reliable guys mainly Bobby Dixon and Jon Diebler. Although the team executed relevant offensive sets to create wide open shooting possibilities for above mentioned guys, both of them were out of sync, so they couldn't convert wide open shoots into points. That's why Galatasaray Medical Park comfortably trailed Pinar Karsiyaka mainly in the last 15 minutes of the first game.

In the second game of the series, I was very convinced that Pinar Karsiyaka couldn't have shot worse than they did as a team. In fact, excluding the last 2 minutes of the first half, they executed the offense a lot better than the first game. The first half of the 2nd game was quite even, visiting Pinar Karsiyaka even leading the score in the first quarter. The 8 points Galatasaray Medical Park lead at the half time was totally misleading because such a difference occurred in the last 2 minutes of the second quarter. The third quarter was quite even as well until the inexplicable technical fouls committed by visitors. I won't comment whether or not they were fair, but the occurrence of those technical fouls destroyed the rythm of Pinar Karsiyaka team. Right after those moments, Galatasaray Medical Park took control of the game until the very final minutes and managed to secure the victory in spite of the latest come back of Pinar Karsiyaka team in the 4th quarter. Pinar Karsiyaka team missed a total of 4 FT out of 6 in the clutch minutes. A competent team has no luxury to waste such easy scoring opportunities and it clearly cost them the a potential victory.

I mostly mentioned from Pinar Karsiyaka perspective, but there were certainly points regarding Galatasaray Medical Park team as well. Carlos Arroyo who has the greatest experience among his teammates as well as his opponents made a huge difference. Galatasaray Medical Park team almost always controlled the game and led the scoring solely by his presence on the court and couldn't avoid Pinar Karsiyaka come backs whenever was benched to catch his breath. His backup Ender Arslan looked to be the biggest battle neck of his team so far. Besides, Boniface Ndong, another player with great experience, proved decisive. Ndong is not only a player with big post threat, but he also has efficient mid range shooting. His presence created a lot of trouble for damaged Pinar Karsiyaka front court rotation everytime he was utilized. I believe those two guys are most likely to be key players for tomorrow's game. ( we could add Jamont Gordon as well )

Yesterday another negative news came out for Pinar Karsiyaka. Umit Sonkol was reported to be out of season. He won't be able to play in the following games in case Pinar Karsiyaka manages to extend the series.(He was the weakest link for Pinar Karsiyaka during the first two games, I don't consider his absence so serious for his team.)  By his absence, Bora Hun Pacun is likely to receive extended minutes tomorrow. When Pinar Karsiyaka defeated Galatasaray at home in december, he was one of the main actors of that victory. It's a must that he plays well for the sake of his team. The given spread is quite similar to what was revealed in that game. Galatasaray Medical Park is at 20 or 21 games winning streak.(I ain't sure about the exact figure) This streak is destined to be broken somewhere and tomorrow's game might be the end of it. Since, it's a "now or never" game for home side, I believe it's a worth to try that possibility with decent odds.

It's just a matter of efficient perimeter shooting and applying enough pressure on Carlos Arroyo and Jamont Gordon. Galatasaray Medical Park rotation consists of many veteran players, so home side Pinar Karsiyaka will definitely find the opportunitiy to take control when some of those guys are on the bench. In addition, it's always tough to play in Karsiyaka Arena for visitors and it'll be even tougher this time provided that the stress of sustaining the winning streak for Galatasaray Medical Park players is present. One quick remark; there won't be any visiting fans due to the agreement, so enormous amount of home court support is probable.

Pick: Pinar Karsiyaka ML @ 2.6
Stake: 8/10

Good luck and happy betting!

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