Friday, February 15, 2013

Fenerbahce Ulker - Besiktas(Euroleague 1st match up)

Fenerbahce Ulker Besiktas pick
This is just another interesting game to consider merely due to the odds revealed. Home side Fenerbahce Ulker has only one victory which they achieved against BC Khimki Moscow Region a couple of weeks ago. Besiktas is the only team without a win in Group F and this is one of the few remaining games they should exploit if they intend to alter this statistics.

Fenerbahce Ulker has gained some momentum recently. Last week, they made their way to the finals of Turkish Cup and collected the title against rivalry Galatasaray Medical Park. Those two clubs are heavy rivals to each especialy in the football competition. Nevertheless, the competition has spread all around by means of different sports as well. Certainly, Basketball is the main area besides football where those teams always look to defeat each other. Because of this nature, winning against Galatasaray Medical Park was a great source of motivation. The morale motivation of Fenerbahce Ulker is at its peak and they'll seek to take full advantage of it.

Visiting Besiktas is neither motivated nor laid back. The head coach Erman Kunter has been well aware of his rotations capabilities, so there isn't anything negative or worse than what has been with them in the recent weeks. Besiktas was eliminated in semi final of Turkish Cup by Fenerbahce Ulker last week with 66-75 score. However, Turkish Cup was totally a different competition when compared to Euroleague. Right now, they are certainly looking forward and they'll aim to reach their first victory of the season in TOP 16.

It's going to be a very tough game for Besiktas. Fenerbahce Ulker is in a better shape than they have never been since the beginning of the season. David Andersen is the most remarkable player for the last 3-4 weeks. He averaged about 9 points and 4 rebounds in last week's Turkish Cup Finals. His hands are very hot behind the arc, so he is very likely to create serious problems for Besiktas in power forward position. Besides him, Omer Onan and Emir Preldzic have recovered from their injuries. These are the main reasons why Fenerbahce Ulker is in top shape. In Besiktas side, there isn't so much positive to talk about on the eve of this rival game. Damir Markota's poor performance continues whereas his back up Cevher Ozer seemed to step up a little bit. Point guards Tutku Acik and Muratcan Guler overcame their injury problems but both of them are serioulsy lack of match practice.

This is the third time those teams will face each other. As i said above, last week Fenerbahce Ulker won 66-75 in a neutral ground. In the first half of the league, Fenerbahce Ulker hosted Besiktas in Ulker Arena and they won the game 83-74. However, the athmosphere of Euroleague will certainly be much different than those past match ups. Besiktas head coach Erman Kunter aims to control game tempo regardless of the score of the match. In some past Euroleague games, he was criticized by not aiming to win the games he could have shot winning but rather avoiding heavy losses in the score sheet. If his team were to win a game in Euroleague this season, it would definitely be either of Fenerbahce Ulker match ups. I'm pretty sure he's been making exactly the same assumptions. No matter how improved Fenerbahce Ulker has been recently, this game isn't as easy as it is projected by the given odds. It is a rival game, so motivational factors will be just as decisive as individual qualities of players. One other thing is the presence of the fans. When Istanbul rivalries face each other, no away fans are allowed in the venues to avoid potential riots. This is a euroleague game, so there won't be any such restriction in effect.

In short, the determined spread for this game is far from being realistic. I do think seriously that it is way too high than it should be. +10.5 spread on behalf of Besiktas is quite rewarding. One figure comparable to today's spread is the one against Besiktas when Besiktas played in Pire to face Olympiakos; +12.5 . So, we should exploit it to the full extent.

Pick: Besiktas +10.5 @ 1.90

Good luck and happy betting!

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