Friday, February 8, 2013

Besiktas - Fenerbahce Ulker ( Turkish Cup semi final )

 In the third day of Turkish Cup finals, the first game of the semi finals are scheduled between Besiktas and Fenerbahce. Besides this match up, those sides will face each other once in the remaining part of the domestic league and twice in Euroleague. Fenerbahce Ulker defeated Besiktas 83-74 in the first half of the season.

Fenerbahce Ulker has missed Emir Preldzic and Omer Onan in recent weeks. But, both of them have recovered from their injuries and are available to play against Besiktas tonight. In fact, Omer Onan played 28 minutes and scored team high 18 points against Pinar Karsiyaka in the previous round whereas Emir Preldzic only played 13 minutes and scored 8 points. In Besiktas side,however, the injuries of Muratcan Guler and Tutku Acik still are in effect. (Tutku Acik recovered but he's lack of match practice)

Fenerbahce Ulker is a clear favourites here. Nevertheless, there is one point that makes me hesitate. This season, Besiktas hasn't won any big match up yet. Given their incompetent rotation, I expect this streak to hold in the domestic league and in Euroleague as well. However, all statistics are bound to experience an exception and this exception might well happen in this minor tournament. All games are held in a neutral venue, so any result is a possible outcome. I'm pretty sure Besiktas staff makes similar plans too.

There is one thing I noticed regarding the spreads. Rather than the full time spread, the first quarter spread seemed to possess more value on behalf of Besiktas. Besiktas is short in front court rotation, so Fenerbahce Ulker is probable to exploit it. Gasper Vidmar, unless he suffers a foul trouble, is likely to play roughly 8 minutes in the first quarter. Patrick Christopher and Curtis Jerrells, too, will receive similar minutes in the beginning of the game. The time periods when Cemal Nalga is on the court are the most useful ones for Fenerbahce Ulker. Therefore, first quarter is the period which has lesser risk of that. This tournament doesn't bring us much luck, so i hope this pick becomes the beginning of positive streak.

Pick: Besiktas First Quarter +2.5 @ 1.85
Stake: 8/10

Good luck and happy betting!

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1 comment:


    After a series of losses, finally a winning one.