Friday, January 4, 2013

Olympiacos - Besiktas

Olympiacos Besiktas pick
Euroleague's defending champion Olympiacos Piraeus is going to play its first home game against Besiktas within Group F of 2012-2013 season. It is surely a great experience to face such an experienced team for visiting Besiktas which seeks to do their best to stand against them.

Actually, I've been pretty hesitant of whether or not I should be betting on this game. Olympiacos is a team whose strength and potential is pretty unnecessary to talk about. We all know that they are a regular participant of this tournament. In an epic final, they managed to collect last year's title by defeating CSKA Moscow with a buzzer beating alley hoop. CSKA Moscow had long been named as certain favourites of that tournament primarily due to their remarkable and expensive rotation built around Andrei Kirilenko;however, Olympiacos showed us money doesn't bring titles but heart does. Surely, Olympiacos team will do their best to defend their title and Besiktas is the first visiting opponent on this road through the final four 2013 held in London.

Visiting Besiktas is just another team performing by heart. After losing its important players mainly as David Hawkins, Carlos Arroyo, Pops Bonsu Mensah, Zoran Erceg, completely fresh but much more mediocre rotation is established under the command of head coach Erman Kunter. The expectations from this group of players were largely lower when compared to who was here last year;however, Kunter's men was the first Turkish team among others to secure the ticket to Euroleague's TOP 16. Everyone, including me, this is as far as how further Besiktas could go, but this doesn't mean Besiktas will just give it up and have fun playing basketball on the court. All the players are where they have been looking forward to play, so they'll do their best to achieve as many victories as possible.

This is a game where olympiacos victory is highly likely to happen. However, in terms of spread betting, i believe it could be one of the toughest lines set for this week. Besiktas is a very unpredictable team whose home-away or domestic-europe performances differ a lot. If there were a single digit spread against Olympiakos, i would have taken it straight. However, I'm very reluctant to back on such a high spread since I expect Besiktas to fight till to the end. It all depends on the shooting performance of Besiktas backcourt players, so anything could happen. Instad, I noticed one statistical fact which I'm going to base my choice upon. Of 11 games, Besiktas's first quarter leading stats are 3-0-7. Within 6 of those 7 matches, Besiktas finished the first quarters not more than 4 points behind. It was only Partizan which acquired 19-14 lead at the end of first quarter in Belgrade. The first quarter spread is set to +4.5 for this game.

So 10 times in 11 matches, Besiktas covered today's first quarter spread. The fate of the full time spread betting is highly dependent on the daily performance of Besiktas rotation. Especially Gasper Vidmar is still the only option in the paint, so Olympiacos will be dominating Besiktas inside sooner or later. However, Besiktas starters, unless they begin the game with a terrible shooting, might cover this spread. I believe the first quarter spread is really worth to try.

Pick: Besiktas first quarter +4.5 @ 1.90
Stake: 6/10

Good luck and happy betting!

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  1. idiots made 2 mistakes in the last 2.5 seconds :( :( :( :(