Sunday, January 13, 2013

Fenerbahce Ulker - Olin Edirne

Fenerbahce Ulker Olin Edirne pick
Another interesting game within sunday schedule is between those two teams. Both Fenerbahce Ulker and Olin Edirne are facing serious organization problems which makes it particularly interesting to focus on this game. Fenerbahce Ulker lost first 3 games of Euroleague while Olin Edirne lost 5 in a row in Turkish League. Unless serious measures are taken, Olin Edirne is heading towards the relegation zone to join Hacettepe University.

Since, we analyze picks of Fenerbahce Ulker for Euroleague competition, we do talk a lot about the problems that they have. So, I won't repeat the same things again. Instead, the current situation of Olin Edirne is remarkable to focus on. They lost 5 in a row, so they seriously face the danger of relegation. After a home loss against Tofas which wasn't avoided even after the overtime, I thought the head coach of Olin Edirne was about to resign, but no such news came out. So, they have to show some performance, even if they can't win the game today.

One thing is obvious. Fenerbahce Ulker's defense is terribly soft. They allowed 90+ points in their last 4 games. Well, those were tough match ups;however, this can't be an excuse given the amount of money invested for this team. Usually, I'm not in favor of game total bets but one thing i noticed makes me revisit this decision, at least for this game. Olin Edirne looks to control the game tempo when they host opponents at home. On the road, in contrast, they have been closer to victories when they preferred accelerated high tempo basketball. While they scoring couldn't exceed 70 against elite teams, Olin Edirne managed to score over 80 points against the rest of the opponents on the road.

Today the game total is set to 153.5 points. Considering the current chaos within Fenerbahce Ulker team, I think their defensive performance projects more to those of non elite teams Olin faced rather than the elite teams Olin couldn't score over 70 points. Since Olin Edirne is desperately in need of victory, I think they could be expected to be little more productive today. If visiting Olin Edirne manages to score 70+ points, the game total becomes extremelly closer to Over and they become more likely to stay within the spread. I don't expect Fenerbahce Ulker to defeat a lot, instead they probably look to win the game by scoring higher. So, my pick here will be on game total.

One quick remark; Fenerbahce Ulker defeated Olin Edirne 83-70 on October, 3th in a Turkish Basketball Leauge Cup game. I think that's the reason how today's game total is set.

Pick : Game total Over 153.0 @ 1.88
Stake: 6/10

Good luck and happy betting!

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