Friday, January 11, 2013

Anadolu Efes - Alba Berlin

Anadolu Efes Alba Berlin pick
Alba Berlin is visiting Anadolu Efes in Istanbul for friday night. It is definitely one of those games that Anadolu Efes must win if they are supposed to qualify through group E. Last weekend, Anadolu Efes comfortably beated Diamantidis short Panathinaikos 78-64.

Anadolu Efes didn't satisfy many of the authorities by the quality of the basketball they play and the outcome of the results they collected in the first round. However, They have certainly been in a much positive period recently.  Solid 3 quarter performance in Moscow, despite the defeat at the end, was the indication of what was about to come. In fact, Anadolu Efes took great advantage of Dimitris Diamantidis' injury and defeated Panathinaikos with a decisive performance. In order to crown that victory, they shouldn't make any mistake against Alba Berlin tonight.

Alba Berlin lost its first 2 games at home. Tonight, they'll play their first away game of TOP 16 group stage. Anadolu Efes is just another tough opponent faced not at the best time for German side. Although Alba Berlin is the most known German side for years, they are obviously not competent enough this season with quite inconsistent performance. Such a fact makes it difficult to figure out how they are about to perform on the court.

This is a must win battle for both sides, more particularly for home side Anadolu Efes. If they aim to compete with teams like Panathinaikos, Cska, Zalgiris etc., they should  avoid any possible losses against opponents like Alba Berlin. Alba Berlin have relatively lower scoring  potential when compared to Anadolu Efes, so if i were them, i would try to slow down the tempo. Anadolu Efes usually starts the game very aggresivelly and accelerates the game whenever possible. Coach Oktay Mahmudi puts in Joshua Shipp and Sasha Vujacic in the starting line up for past a few games with the aim to take down opponent's guards quickly. I expect the same line up against Alba Berlin as well. Semih Erden and Dusko Savanovic are also in top shape for the low post offensive sets;therefore, they should be able to easily contain Alba Berlin players such as Deon Thomson and Albert Miralles.(Especially Semih Erden, who scored 27 points against Fenerbahce Ulker last monday). Considering the current form of Anadolu Efes and overall scoring potential of Alba Berlin, I find the value mainly in the first quarter spread rather than the full time one. Since, I expect Alba Berlin to show efforts to prevail, I skip the full time spread.

Pick: Anadolu Efes first quarter handicap -3.5 @ 1.90
Stake: 8/10

Good luck and happy betting!

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